What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 397 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Lokomotiv Moscow drew 110 where the draw model expected 102.1 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 100.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 24 Apr 2024 → 19 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 01 Dec 2020 → 02 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 20 Nov 2021 → 10 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 20 Aug 2022 → 29 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 31 Aug 2019 → 27 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 18 Sep 2018 → 06 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 20 Jul 2013 → 26 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 20 Oct 2011 → 09 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 12 Nov 2022 → 16 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 13 May 2017 → 05 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 422 | 119 | 28.2% | 1 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 72 | 16 | 22.2% | 2 | 8 |
| UEFA Champions League | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 0 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 4 |
| 2025 | 30 | 13 | 43.3% | 5 |
| 2024 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 18 |
| 2023 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 10 |
| 2021 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2020 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2019 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 2018 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2017 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 7 |
| 2016 | 29 | 11 | 37.9% | 4 |
| 2015 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2014 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 4 |
| 2013 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 9 |
| 2012 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 2011 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2010 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2007 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2002 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1999 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1998 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1997 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1996 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 08:30 |
Lokomotiv Moscow
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.5% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.