What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 28 Mar 2023 → 10 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 13 Oct 2020 → 24 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 03 Aug 2004 → 19 Jun 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 15 Jul 1978 → 16 Jun 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 31 May 1998 → 31 Mar 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 14 Aug 1966 → 19 Dec 1966 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 17 Jun 1975 → 25 Jan 1976 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 20 Nov 2018 → 26 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 11 Feb 2010 → 24 Jun 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 22 Jun 2006 → 01 Jun 2007 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 237 | 51 | 21.5% | 4 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 153 | 29 | 19.0% | 2 | 13 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 74 | 17 | 23.0% | 2 | 7 |
| Kirin Cup | 57 | 17 | 29.8% | 3 | 3 |
| AFC Asian Cup | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 5 | 7 |
| Asian Games | 50 | 4 | 8.0% | 5 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 1 | 3 |
| EAFF Championship | 26 | 9 | 34.6% | 1 | 3 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 25 | 2 | 8.0% | 4 | 5 |
| Kirin Challenge Cup | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 0 | 3 |
| Confederations Cup | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 3 | 3 |
| Far Eastern Championship Games | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Dynasty Cup | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 | 3 |
| Copa América | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| East Asian Games | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| King's Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Guangzhou International Friendship Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| King Hassan II Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Korea Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Millennium Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Open International Championship | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 13 |
| 2023 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2022 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2021 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2020 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 23 | 3 | 13.0% | 9 |
| 2018 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 2017 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2016 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 3 |
| 2014 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 5 |
| 2013 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2012 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2011 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2010 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2009 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 6 |
| 2008 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2007 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 2 |
| 2006 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 8 |
| 2005 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 11 |
| 2004 | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2002 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 2001 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 6 |
| 2000 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 4 |
| 1999 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1998 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 11 |
| 1997 | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 7 |
| 1996 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 9 |
| 1995 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1994 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1993 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 1992 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1991 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1988 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 1987 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1986 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1985 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1984 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1982 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 1980 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 12 |
| 1977 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 1969 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1965 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1964 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1962 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1961 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1958 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1942 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1940 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1923 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1917 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
Over 156 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Japan drew 27 where the draw model expected 29.7 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 36.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 2 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.