What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 12 Mar 1977 → 04 Dec 1977 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 10 Nov 2003 → 17 Nov 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 10 Aug 1967 → 10 Nov 1967 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 22 May 1971 → 21 Aug 1971 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 05 Sep 2024 → 19 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 01 Jan 2024 → 06 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 06 Jun 2016 → 28 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 23 Feb 1985 → 22 Sep 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 01 Jun 2022 → 21 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 27 Aug 2009 → 14 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 132 | 30 | 22.7% | 2 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 89 | 18 | 20.2% | 0 | 9 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 71 | 21 | 29.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 7 | 7 |
| EAFF Championship | 35 | 4 | 11.4% | 3 | 4 |
| Asian Games | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 2 | 4 |
| AFC Asian Cup | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 3 | 3 |
| Dynasty Cup | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 | 3 |
| King's Cup | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Beijing International Friendship Tournament | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Indonesia Tournament | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Guangzhou International Friendship Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Vietnam Independence Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Dragon Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| EAFF Championship qualification | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Millennium Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Tri-Nations Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Great Wall Cup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 9 |
| 2023 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2018 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2017 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2015 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2014 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2013 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2011 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2006 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 2005 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2004 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2003 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 6 |
| 2001 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2000 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1997 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1994 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1992 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1984 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1982 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1981 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 13 |
| 1976 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 1974 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1971 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1970 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 6 |
| 1968 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1967 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1966 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 2 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1956 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 102 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Hong Kong drew 22 where the draw model expected 19.7 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 22.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 3 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.