What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 427 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Hammarby IF drew 112 where the draw model expected 98.1 from those particular fixtures — about 14 more, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 102.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 11 Aug 2019 → 14 Jun 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 23 Oct 2022 → 04 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 31 Mar 2024 → 02 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 03 May 2026 → 19 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 04 Dec 2021 → 25 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 22 May 2025 → 27 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 22 Feb 2025 → 23 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 03 Jul 2022 → 22 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 03 Oct 2021 → 21 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 13 Sep 2015 → 31 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allsvenskan | 352 | 94 | 26.7% | 2 | 12 |
| Swedish Cup | 124 | 29 | 23.4% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Conference League | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 11 |
| 2025 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 12 |
| 2023 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 11 |
| 2022 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 10 |
| 2021 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2020 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 4 |
| 2019 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2018 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 5 |
| 2017 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 7 |
| 2016 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2015 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2013 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2003 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2002 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2001 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1996 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1983 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 11:30 |
Hammarby IF
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 18.3% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.