What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 19 Jan 2024 → 19 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 10 Oct 1976 → 16 Oct 1977 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 10 Nov 1996 → 16 Aug 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 28 Mar 2017 → 24 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 26 Mar 2005 → 08 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 01 Sep 2002 → 06 Jul 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 25 Feb 1965 → 10 Aug 1965 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 26 May 2012 → 29 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 22 Mar 1970 → 15 Nov 1970 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 09 Sep 2007 → 24 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 194 | 56 | 28.9% | 1 | 8 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 130 | 37 | 28.5% | 6 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 91 | 17 | 18.7% | 0 | 7 |
| AmÃlcar Cabral Cup | 63 | 24 | 38.1% | 1 | 3 |
| African Cup of Nations | 52 | 18 | 34.6% | 4 | 4 |
| All-African Games | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Morocco, Capital of African Football | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2025 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 14 |
| 2023 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2022 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2021 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2018 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2016 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2015 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2014 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2013 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2011 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2008 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 2007 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2004 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 2003 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2002 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2001 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1997 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 9 |
| 1996 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1995 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1994 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1993 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 1992 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1991 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 1988 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1987 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1986 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 1984 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 4 |
| 1983 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1982 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1981 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 2 |
| 1980 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1979 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1977 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1976 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 2 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1974 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1973 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1972 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1971 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1970 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1969 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1968 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1964 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 107 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Guinea drew 29 where the draw model expected 25.7 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 2 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.