What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 10 Jun 2011 → 08 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 01 Dec 1995 → 14 Aug 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 03 Mar 2010 → 21 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 12 Feb 1989 → 03 Sep 1989 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 25 Feb 2005 → 10 Jul 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 03 Jun 1984 → 06 Mar 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 15 Aug 2018 → 09 Jun 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 14 Oct 2025 → 28 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 16 Feb 2003 → 15 Jul 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 24 Mar 2023 → 27 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 238 | 60 | 25.2% | 3 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 95 | 22 | 23.2% | 3 | 7 |
| UNCAF Cup | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 1 | 4 |
| Gold Cup | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 1 | 4 |
| CONCACAF Championship | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 0 | 5 |
| CCCF Championship | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 2 | 5 |
| CONCACAF Championship qualification | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 2 | 4 |
| CONCACAF Nations League | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 2 | 4 |
| Central American and Caribbean Games | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Gold Cup qualification | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| USA Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Marlboro Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Korea Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 5 |
| 2024 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2023 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2022 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2021 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2018 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 3 |
| 2014 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2012 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2011 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 9 |
| 2010 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2007 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2006 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2005 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 10 |
| 2004 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 2003 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 8 |
| 2002 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2001 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 2000 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1999 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 1998 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1996 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 1995 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 1988 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1984 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1983 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 5 |
| 1977 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1976 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1963 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1957 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1943 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1935 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 116 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Guatemala drew 27 where the draw model expected 24.4 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 25.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.