Guadalajara Chivas
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 442 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Guadalajara Chivas drew 131 where the draw model expected 125.0 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 119.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 01 Dec 2025 → 22 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 21 Sep 2025 → 08 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 17 Mar 2019 → 29 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 28 Aug 2016 → 30 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 13 Aug 2015 → 04 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 08 Oct 2023 → 04 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 09 Apr 2023 → 22 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 27 Sep 2017 → 19 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 14 Apr 2022 → 13 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 31 Mar 2018 → 29 Jul 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga MX | 526 | 161 | 30.6% | 1 | 13 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Campeón de Campeones | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 12 |
| 2025 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2023 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 8 |
| 2022 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2021 | 36 | 16 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2020 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 2019 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2018 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2017 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 8 |
| 2016 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 9 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 4 |
| 2013 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 2012 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 01:00 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.