What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 425 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), IF Elfsborg drew 107 where the draw model expected 99.0 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 102.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 07 Apr 2024 → 11 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 20 Sep 2025 → 06 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 22 Jul 2023 → 30 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 20 Oct 2013 → 04 Apr 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 31 Mar 2012 → 30 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 04 Oct 2014 → 05 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 07 Apr 2025 → 31 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 29 Aug 2021 → 31 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 05 Mar 2016 → 18 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 25 Sep 2024 → 02 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allsvenskan | 442 | 116 | 26.2% | 4 | 17 |
| Swedish Cup | 144 | 24 | 16.7% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 76 | 16 | 21.1% | 4 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 9 |
| 2025 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 2024 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 2023 | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | 14 |
| 2022 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2021 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 2020 | 36 | 16 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2019 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 2018 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2017 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2016 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 11 |
| 2015 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 8 |
| 2014 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 8 |
| 2013 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2012 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 13 |
| 2011 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2010 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2007 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2006 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2003 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2002 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2001 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1981 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1945 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1944 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1943 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1942 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1941 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 10:00 |
IF Elfsborg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.