What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 379 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Beijing Guoan drew 95 where the draw model expected 90.5 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 94.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims.
These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
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