What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 15 Nov 2025 → 06 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 06 Sep 2024 → 25 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 10 Apr 1944 → 05 Sep 1944 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 11 Sep 2023 → 08 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 06 Sep 2019 → 18 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 01 Feb 2015 → 08 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 27 Mar 2021 → 05 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 30 Mar 2014 → 03 Jun 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 28 Jan 2004 → 27 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 04 Apr 2001 → 08 Apr 2001 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | 1 | 7 |
| CFU Caribbean Cup qualification | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | 2 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 1 | 4 |
| CONCACAF Nations League | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 6 |
| ABCS Tournament | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 1 | 2 |
| CCCF Championship | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| CONCACAF Nations League qualification | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Gold Cup qualification | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| CONCACAF Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2025 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2021 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2016 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2014 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2008 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2001 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2000 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1997 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1996 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1957 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1955 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1953 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1952 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1944 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1943 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1941 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 156 matches (Apr 1924 – Oct 2026), Aruba drew 31 where the draw model expected 30.3 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 33.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.