Arsenal Tula
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 202 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Arsenal Tula drew 44 where the draw model expected 53.6 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 51.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 06 Dec 2020 → 15 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 30 Oct 2016 → 12 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 24 Oct 2014 → 11 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 04 Nov 2019 → 15 Jul 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 20 Jul 2019 → 13 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 21 May 2017 → 09 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 15 Sep 2017 → 05 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 03 Nov 2018 → 02 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 17 Aug 2014 → 28 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 21 Nov 2021 → 26 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 214 | 45 | 21.0% | 2 | 18 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2021 | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 15 |
| 2020 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2019 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2018 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 5 |
| 2017 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 2015 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 2014 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 7 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 12:00 |
CSKA Moscow
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.