What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 18 Nov 2007 → 27 Aug 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 27 Aug 2019 → 21 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 16 Nov 2014 → 08 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 07 Sep 2012 → 11 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 08 Jun 2024 → 16 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 23 Mar 2023 → 14 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 02 Sep 2011 → 11 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 19 Apr 1998 → 31 Jul 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 30 Apr 2018 → 23 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 11 Nov 2011 → 08 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 61 | 14 | 23.0% | 2 | 6 |
| CFU Caribbean Cup qualification | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 1 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 2 | 6 |
| CFU Caribbean Cup | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 1 | 5 |
| CONCACAF Nations League | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | 0 | 6 |
| CONCACAF Championship qualification | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Gold Cup qualification | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 3 |
| CONCACAF Nations League qualification | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| CONCACAF Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2016 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 2011 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2010 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2009 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2008 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 4 |
| 2005 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2001 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 1999 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1994 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1979 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
Over 235 matches (Nov 1972 – Oct 2026), Antigua and Barbuda drew 43 where the draw model expected 49.8 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 50.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.