| Figure | Querétaro | CF Monterrey | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 7 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 13 | 19 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.64 | 0.21 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 20.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 23.0% | 21.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.3% | 25.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.408 | 0.106 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 219 | 1,476 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 8 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.84 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.514 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
| 2 | Club América | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
| 4 | Deportivo Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 | Club León | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | CF Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 21 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Querétaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 | Club Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 | Atlético de San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Club Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |