Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

Match ☆ 25 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC

ARG · Liga Profesional · 2026

ARG Boca Juniors

Current form · last 20

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Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#7 / 30 · ARG · Liga Profesional · 2026

As of this morning · domestic league only

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The models forecast for this fixture

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Boca Juniors	Independiente Rivadavia	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	4	0	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	24	10	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	1.26	0.00	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	32.0%	36.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	31.0%	34.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	28.1%	29.5%	share of every match drawn
Draw scorethe predictor ranking score	0.251	0.099	the predictor ranking score
Rankposition in that ranking	561	1,531	position in that ranking
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	4		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.26		both sides' draw debt added
Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by	0.350		what the Cross predictor orders by

Team strength · Elo

Boca Juniors 1,765

Independiente Rivadavia 1,632

Rating gap +198 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 23.7% 150–199 · 53,470 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.85 home – away

Home win 57.4%

Draw 24.8% every level score added up

Away win 17.8%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 24.4% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 24.8% form only

This Elo gap said 23.7% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.2% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 24.4% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Liga Profesional · 2026 Current indexed standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	50	31	+19	66
2	Argentinos Juniors	35	18	11	6	40	28	+12	65
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	47	24	+23	64
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	49	30	+19	62
5	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata	34	18	6	10	45	41	+4	60
6	Belgrano de Córdoba	36	16	11	9	41	31	+10	59
7	Independiente Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	51	41	+10	57
8	Vélez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	43	30	+13	56
9	Instituto de Córdoba	32	16	7	9	43	32	+11	55
10	Estudiantes de La Plata	32	13	8	11	40	29	+11	47
11	Club Atlético Lanús	32	12	11	9	36	29	+7	47
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	32	28	+4	47
13	Defensa y Justicia	32	12	11	9	39	36	+3	47
14	Club Atlético Independiente	33	12	11	10	40	39	+1	47
15	Club Atlético Huracán	34	11	13	10	32	30	+2	46
16	Unión de Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	50	47	+3	45
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	24	31	-7	42
18	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	32	11	8	13	32	39	-7	41
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	35	40	-5	40
20	Sarmiento de Junín	32	12	4	16	36	44	-8	40
21	Club Atlético Tigre	32	9	12	11	34	31	+3	39
22	Talleres de Córdoba	33	10	9	14	34	37	-3	39
23	Newell's Old Boys	32	8	14	10	31	40	-9	38
24	Club Atlético Platense	32	8	12	12	28	35	-7	36
25	Club Atlético Banfield	32	8	9	15	35	44	-9	33
26	Atlético Tucumán	32	7	11	14	31	37	-6	32
27	Central Córdoba (SdE)	32	6	9	17	23	47	-24	27
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	16	31	-15	23
29	Club Atlético Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	22	45	-23	19
30	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	32	3	5	24	15	47	-32	14

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