| Figure | Aris Thessaloniki | AEK Athens | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 5 | 8 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 22 | 21 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.44 | 1.55 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 30.0% | 20.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 28.0% | 19.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 25.8% | 21.9% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.277 | 0.310 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 476 | 395 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 13 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.99 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.587 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 23 |
| 3 | AEK Athens | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 20 |
| 4 | PAOK Thessaloniki | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 | Aris Thessaloniki | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Iraklis Thessaloniki | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 12 | Atromitos Athens | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |