| Figure | Samsunspor | Gaziantep FK | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 11 | 7 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 16 | 34 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 2.84 | 1.79 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 27.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 24.0% | 25.8% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.541 | 0.359 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 72 | 296 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 18 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 4.63 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.900 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray SK | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Besiktas | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 25 |
| 4 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa SK | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Fenerbahce | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 19 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Çaykur Rizespor | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
| 11 | Çorum | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | BB Erzurumspor | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Erzurumspor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Alanyaspor | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Gaziantep FK | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Samsunspor | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 7 |
| 19 | Eyüpspor | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 32 | -29 | 3 |