| Figure | Rayo Vallecano | Málaga CF | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 3 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 30 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.59 | 0.98 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 30.0% | 32.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 29.0% | 33.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.1% | 28.4% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.154 | 0.226 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,042 | 650 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 5 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.57 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.381 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruña | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Villarreal CF | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | CA Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | RCD Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 | Getafe CF | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante UD | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche CF | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia CF | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga CF | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |