| Figure | Atalanta BC | Genoa CFC | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 1 | 8 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 16 | 19 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.26 | 1.94 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 20.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 27.0% | 27.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 28.0% | 30.2% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.119 | 0.372 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,354 | 277 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 9 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.19 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.491 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Cagliari Calcio | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | SSC Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Atalanta BC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Genoa CFC | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | US Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | ACF Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma Calcio | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | US Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 | AC Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 | Udinese Calcio | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |