Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata vs Belgrano de Córdoba

Match ☆ 05 Nov 2026 · 22:15 UTC

ARG · Liga Profesional · 2026

ARG Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata

Current form · last 20

W L D W L W W W L D L W W D D D D W W W

Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#5 / 30 · ARG · Liga Profesional · 2026

As of this morning · domestic league only

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The models forecast for this fixture

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata	Belgrano de Córdoba	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	3	0	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	21	9	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.59	0.00	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	16.0%	36.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	22.0%	38.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	26.4%	35.8%	share of every match drawn
Draw scorethe predictor ranking score	0.174	0.110	the predictor ranking score
Rankposition in that ranking	912	1,454	position in that ranking
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	3		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.59		both sides' draw debt added
Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by	0.285		what the Cross predictor orders by

Team strength · Elo

Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1,652

Belgrano de Córdoba 1,622

Rating gap +95 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.2% 75–99 · 64,955 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.01 home – away

Home win 42.1%

Draw 29.4% every level score added up

Away win 28.5%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 28.1% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 29.4% form only

This Elo gap said 25.2% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 30.7% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 30.7% – 30.7% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 28.1% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Liga Profesional · 2026 Current indexed standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentinos Juniors	34	18	11	5	40	26	+14	65
2	Rosario Central	34	18	9	7	48	31	+17	63
3	Boca Juniors	32	16	13	3	46	24	+22	61
4	River Plate	35	18	5	12	47	30	+17	59
5	Belgrano de Córdoba	35	16	11	8	40	29	+11	59
6	Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata	33	17	6	10	43	40	+3	57
7	Vélez Sarsfield	32	14	14	4	43	28	+15	56
8	Independiente Rivadavia	32	16	8	8	50	40	+10	56
9	Instituto de Córdoba	31	16	6	9	41	30	+11	54
10	Defensa y Justicia	31	12	11	8	39	35	+4	47
11	Estudiantes de La Plata	31	13	7	11	39	28	+11	46
12	Club Atlético Lanús	31	12	10	9	35	28	+7	46
13	Barracas Central	31	11	11	9	30	28	+2	44
14	Club Atlético Independiente	32	11	11	10	38	38	0	44
15	Club Atlético Huracán	33	10	13	10	30	30	0	43
16	Unión de Santa Fe	33	11	9	13	48	47	+1	42
17	San Lorenzo	32	10	12	10	24	29	-5	42
18	Racing Club	33	10	10	13	35	38	-3	40
19	Sarmiento de Junín	31	12	4	15	36	43	-7	40
20	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	31	11	7	13	31	38	-7	40
21	Talleres de Córdoba	32	10	8	14	33	36	-3	38
22	Newell's Old Boys	31	8	13	10	29	38	-9	37
23	Club Atlético Tigre	31	8	12	11	33	31	+2	36
24	Club Atlético Platense	31	7	12	12	26	35	-9	33
25	Club Atlético Banfield	31	8	8	15	33	42	-9	32
26	Atlético Tucumán	31	7	10	14	29	35	-6	31
27	Central Córdoba (SdE)	31	6	8	17	22	46	-24	26
28	Deportivo Riestra	31	3	14	14	15	29	-14	23
29	Club Atlético Aldosivi	31	3	10	18	22	43	-21	19
30	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	31	3	5	23	15	45	-30	14

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