| Figure | Athletic Bilbao | Real Madrid | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 3 | 17 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 18 | 29 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.68 | 1.33 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 22.0% | 6.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 23.0% | 9.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.9% | 18.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.184 | 0.386 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 846 | 242 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 20 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.00 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.570 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 30 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 27 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Getafe CF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Villarreal CF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | RCD Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 15 | Racing de Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 11 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche CF | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia CF | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga CF | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 5 |