| Figure | İstanbul Başakşehir | Fenerbahce | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 3 | 2 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 16 | 30 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.73 | 0.52 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 26.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 23.0% | 25.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 25.5% | 21.4% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.199 | 0.137 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 771 | 1,198 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 5 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.25 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.336 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray SK | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 24 |
| 2 | Amed | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 23 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 22 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa SK | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Fenerbahce | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Çorum | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 | Göztepe | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | BB Erzurumspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Çaykur Rizespor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Samsunspor | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 4 |
| 19 | Eyüpspor | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 30 | -27 | 3 |