| Figure | AS Roma | AC Monza | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 29 | 19 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.38 | 1.20 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 22.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 17.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 24.9% | 29.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.121 | 0.286 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,338 | 462 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 7 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.58 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.408 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 28 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 25 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 24 |
| 4 | Como 1907 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 20 |
| 7 | SSC Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Bologna | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Cagliari Calcio | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Atalanta BC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Genoa CFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | US Lecce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | US Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | AC Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Parma Calcio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Udinese Calcio | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
| 19 | ACF Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Venezia | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 3 |