Match ☆ 11 Oct 2026
MEX · Liga MX · 2026
View head-to-head record →
Betting odds
1X2 (match) betting odds
Bet365 home win odds 1.68
Bet365 draw odds 3.8
Bet365 away win odds 5
Betfair Exchange home win odds 1.69
Betfair Exchange draw odds 3.75
Betfair Exchange away win odds 4.5
Market maximum home win odds 1.68
Market maximum draw odds 4
Market maximum away win odds 5
Market average home win odds 1.65
Market average draw odds 3.85
Market average away win odds 4.46
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure CF Pachuca Club Necaxa
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 1 3
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 13 15
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.24 0.80
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 22.0% 26.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 25.0% 27.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 26.9% 28.5%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 4
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 1.04

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 11 Oct 2026, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
CF Pachuca 1,609
Club Necaxa 1,459
Rating gap +215 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 20.6% 200–299 · 49,469 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.