Match ☆ 15 May 2016
UKR · Premier League · 2015 Round 26
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Metalurh Zaporizhzhia Karpaty Lviv
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 8 3
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 8 10
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 1.89 0.59
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 26.0% 22.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 22.0% 18.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 21.6% 18.2%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 11
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 2.48

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 15 May 2016, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Metalurh Zaporizhzhia 1,476
Karpaty Lviv 1,693
Rating gap -152 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 23.7% 150–199 · 53,225 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.