Match ☆ 19 Mar 2016
UKR · Premier League · 2015 Round 19
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Metalurh Zaporizhzhia Shakhtar Donetsk
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 8 8
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 8 18
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 1.89 1.44
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 26.0% 18.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 22.0% 18.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 21.6% 18.1%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 16
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 3.33

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 19 Mar 2016, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Metalurh Zaporizhzhia 1,476
Shakhtar Donetsk 1,917
Rating gap -376 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 14.0% 300+ · 22,514 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.