Match 05 Jul 2022
ITL · Club Friendlies · 2022
View head-to-head record →
The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Gaziantep FK Gabala What it means
N — no-draw run 0 1 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 36 9 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 0.00 0.18 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 34.0% 18.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 27.0% 18.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 24.1% 18.0% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.084 0.000 the predictor ranking score
Rank 1,672 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Gaziantep FK 1,632 after: 1,635
Gabala 1,494 after: 1,491
Rating gap +203 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 20.1% 200–299 · 49,653 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.44 home – away
Home win 36.0%
Draw 26.3% every level score added up
Away win 37.8%

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.