Match
ITL · Club Friendlies · 2026
The models
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
| Figure | Karviná | Stal Rzeszów | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw run | — | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max N | — | 4 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debt | — | 0.28 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50 | — | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100 | — | 29.3% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all time | — | 29.3% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw score | — | 0.000 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rank | — | — | position in that ranking |
These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.
Team strength · Elo
Karviná
—
Stal Rzeszów
1,491
Rating gap
—
home advantage included
Draws at this gap
—
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.23
home – away
Home win
46.4%
Draw
25.4%
every level score added up
Away win
28.1%
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.