Match ☆ 29 May 2011
KSA · King's Cup · 2011 Quarter-final · Leg 1
2nd leg: Al-Ahli 0–1 Al Shabab · 11 Jun 2011 · Agg 3–1 Al-Ahli advance
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Al Shabab Al-Ahli
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 3 2
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 5 5
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.96 0.32
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 31.9% 16.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 31.9% 16.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 31.9% 16.0%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 5
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 1.28

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 29 May 2011, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Al Shabab 1,541
Al-Ahli 1,582
Rating gap +24 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 27.4% 0–24 · 67,362 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.