| Figure | New York Red Bulls | St. Louis City SC | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw run | 4 | 4 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max N | 26 | 11 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debt | 0.99 | 1.08 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50 | 20.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100 | 28.0% | 29.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all time | 24.4% | 25.2% | share of every match drawn |
| Σ N | 8 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ E | 2.07 | both sides' draw debt added | |
These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 26 Sep 2026, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.
No prediction stored for this match.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.