Match 16 Sep 2026 · 16:00 UTC
NOR · Norwegian Football Cup · 2027
HT 0–1 Att. 340
View head-to-head record →
The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Elverum Fotball Raufoss IL What it means
N — no-draw run 1 21 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 23 21 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 0.26 4.28 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 30.0% 18.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 24.0% 22.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 15.6% 17.6% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.112 0.684 the predictor ranking score
Rank 1,387 4 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Elverum Fotball 1,494 after: 1,474
Raufoss IL 1,510 after: 1,530
Rating gap +48 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 24.9% 25–49 · 72,359 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.68 – 2.38 home – away
Home win 26.8%
Draw 20.2% every level score added up
Away win 53.0%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 21.1% 80% goals model · 20% Elo gap
Goals model said 20.2% form only
This Elo gap said 24.9% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.