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· MEX · Liga MX
No-draw streak
‹ back to records
30
non-draws in a row
25 Apr 2015 → 27 Feb 2016
Was this a feat, or a coincidence?
how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected
8.0
across these 30 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected
7.3
the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all
1 in 10,760
for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere
44.11
across every run in the database
Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.01× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Matches in this run
| Date | Home | Score | Away | R | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| the draw before the run | |||||
| 18 Apr 2015 | Club León | 1–1 | Deportivo Toluca | D | MEX · Liga MX |
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| ☆ 25 Apr 2015 |
Atlas
|
3–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 02 May 2015 |
Club Puebla
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 09 May 2015 |
Club León
|
6–2 | Club Tijuana | H |
|
| ☆ 25 Jul 2015 |
Santos Laguna
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 01 Aug 2015 |
Club León
|
4–1 | Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz | H |
|
| ☆ 08 Aug 2015 |
Cruz Azul
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 12 Aug 2015 |
Club León
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Aug 2015 | Monarcas Morelia | 3–4 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 22 Aug 2015 |
Club León
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 30 Aug 2015 |
Deportivo Toluca
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 12 Sep 2015 | Chiapas | 6–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 19 Sep 2015 |
Club León
|
2–1 | Club Tijuana | H |
|
| ☆ 25 Sep 2015 |
Querétaro
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 29 Sep 2015 |
Club León
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 03 Oct 2015 |
CF Monterrey
|
4–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 17 Oct 2015 |
Club León
|
1–3 | Pumas UNAM | A |
|
| ☆ 25 Oct 2015 |
Club Puebla
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 31 Oct 2015 |
Club León
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 07 Nov 2015 |
CF Pachuca
|
3–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 21 Nov 2015 |
Club León
|
3–0 | Dorados de Sinaloa | H |
|
| ☆ 25 Nov 2015 |
Club América
|
4–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 28 Nov 2015 |
Club León
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 09 Jan 2016 |
Club León
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Jan 2016 | Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz | 1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 23 Jan 2016 |
Club León
|
3–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 30 Jan 2016 |
Tigres UANL
|
3–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 06 Feb 2016 |
Club León
|
1–2 | Monarcas Morelia | A |
|
| ☆ 14 Feb 2016 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 20 Feb 2016 |
Club León
|
5–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 27 Feb 2016 |
Club León
|
1–3 | Chiapas | A |
|
| the draw that ended it | |||||
| 04 Mar 2016 | Club Tijuana | 0–0 | Club León | D | MEX · Liga MX |
