☆
· ARM · Premier League
No-draw streak
‹ back to records
31
non-draws in a row
30 Jun 2007 → 17 Jun 2008
Was this a feat, or a coincidence?
how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected
4.8
across these 31 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected
7.5
the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all
1 in 200
for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere
34.40
across every run in the database
Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.09× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Matches in this run
| Date | Home | Score | Away | R | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| the draw before the run | |||||
| 24 Jun 2007 | Kilikia | 0–0 | Ulisses | D | ARM · Premier League |
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· ARM · Premier League
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· ARM · Armenian Cup
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· ARM · Armenian Cup
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· ARM · Armenian Cup
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· ARM · Premier League
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· ARM · Armenian Cup
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· ARM · Premier League
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|
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| ☆ 30 Jun 2007 |
Kilikia
|
1–4 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 10 Jul 2007 |
FC Pyunik Yerevan
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 14 Jul 2007 |
Kilikia
|
0–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 06 Aug 2007 |
Kilikia
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 11 Aug 2007 |
Ararat Yerevan
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Aug 2007 |
Kilikia
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 26 Aug 2007 | Ulisses | 1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 01 Sep 2007 |
Shirak
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 18 Sep 2007 |
Kilikia
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 23 Sep 2007 |
Urartu
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 29 Sep 2007 |
Mika
|
3–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 03 Oct 2007 |
Kilikia
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 07 Oct 2007 |
Gandzasar Kapan
|
4–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 21 Oct 2007 |
Kilikia
|
1–2 | Ulisses | A |
|
| ☆ 26 Oct 2007 |
Kilikia
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 04 Nov 2007 |
FC Pyunik Yerevan
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 10 Nov 2007 |
Kilikia
|
0–6 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 21 Mar 2008 |
Kilikia
|
2–0 | Mika-2 | H | ARM · Armenian Cup |
| ☆ 28 Mar 2008 | Mika-2 | 2–3 |
|
A | ARM · Armenian Cup |
| ☆ 03 Apr 2008 |
Kilikia
|
0–1 |
|
A | ARM · Armenian Cup Quarter-final · Leg 1 |
| ☆ 06 Apr 2008 |
Ararat Yerevan
|
5–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 10 Apr 2008 |
Mika
|
2–1 |
|
H | ARM · Armenian Cup Quarter-final · Leg 2 |
| ☆ 19 Apr 2008 |
Kilikia
|
0–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 27 Apr 2008 | Ulisses | 3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 04 May 2008 |
Kilikia
|
1–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 13 May 2008 |
Urartu
|
4–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 17 May 2008 |
Kilikia
|
0–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 30 May 2008 |
Shirak
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 08 Jun 2008 |
Mika
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 12 Jun 2008 |
Kilikia
|
0–3 | Ulisses | A |
|
| ☆ 17 Jun 2008 |
Gandzasar Kapan
|
3–1 |
|
H |
|
| the draw that ended it | |||||
| 25 Jun 2008 | Kilikia | 1–1 | Urartu | D | ARM · Premier League |
