Match ☆ 24 Jul 2005
ARM · Premier League · 2005
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Lernayin Artsakh Ararat Yerevan
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 11 9
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 15 13
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 1.76 1.73
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 14.0% 18.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 17.4% 20.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 17.4% 19.4%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 20
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 3.49

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 24 Jul 2005, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Lernayin Artsakh 1,382
Ararat Yerevan 1,397
Rating gap +50 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 72,972 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.