Match ☆ 18 Jul 2017
POL · Polish Cup · 2017 Preliminary
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Polonia Bytom Stal Stalowa Wola
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 1 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 4 4
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.27 0.26
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 28.0% 26.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 26.7% 25.4%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 26.7% 25.4%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 2
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.53

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 18 Jul 2017, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Polonia Bytom 1,537
Stal Stalowa Wola 1,511
Rating gap +90 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.2% 75–99 · 64,797 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.