Match ☆ 22 Jul 2015
POL · Polish Cup · 2015 Preliminary
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Boruta Zgierz Widzew Łódź
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 2 4
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 2 10
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.77 1.00
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 38.5% 28.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 38.5% 23.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 38.5% 21.3%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 6
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 1.77

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 22 Jul 2015, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Boruta Zgierz 1,475
Widzew Łódź 1,621
Rating gap -80 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.2% 75–99 · 64,800 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.