Match ☆ 21 Jul 2011
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Chrobry Głogów Czarni Żagań
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 1 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 1 2
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.47 0.17
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 46.7% 16.7%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 46.7% 16.7%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 46.7% 16.7%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 2
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.63

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 21 Jul 2011, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Chrobry Głogów 1,492
Czarni Żagań 1,483
Rating gap +74 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,152 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.