Match ☆ 23 Aug 2006
POL · Polish Cup · 2006
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure HEKO Czermno Widzew Łódź
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 1 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 1 10
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.00 0.18
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 0.0% 16.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 0.0% 19.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 0.0% 19.4%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 2
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.18

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 23 Aug 2006, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
HEKO Czermno 1,483
Widzew Łódź 1,621
Rating gap -72 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,155 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.