Match ☆ 25 Jul 1990
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Unia Tarnów Hetman Zamość
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 4 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 4 4
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.50 0.30
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 12.5% 30.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 12.5% 30.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 12.5% 30.0%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 5
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.80

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 25 Jul 1990, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Unia Tarnów 1,485
Hetman Zamość 1,512
Rating gap +38 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 72,965 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.