Match ☆ 11 Mar 2015
GRE · Greek Football Cup · 2014 Quarter-final
Olympiacos Piraeus advance · agg 4–1
1st leg: Olympiacos Piraeus 1–1 AEK Athens · 11 Feb 2015 · Agg 4–1 Olympiacos Piraeus advance
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure AEK Athens Olympiacos Piraeus
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 0 2
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 21 27
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.00 0.29
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 30.0% 14.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 24.0% 15.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 21.6% 16.1%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 2
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.29

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 11 Mar 2015, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
AEK Athens 1,917
Olympiacos Piraeus 1,933
Rating gap +49 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 72,978 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.