Match ☆ 11 Sep 2014
GRE · Greek Football Cup · 2014 Preliminary
Apollon Kalamarias advance · agg 6–0
1st leg: Apollon Kalamarias 3–0 Aris Thessaloniki · 29 Aug 2014 · Agg 6–0 Apollon Kalamarias advance
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Aris Thessaloniki Apollon Kalamarias
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 0 0
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 22 8
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.00 0.00
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 38.0% 26.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 36.0% 30.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 25.8% 30.1%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 0
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.00

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 11 Sep 2014, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Aris Thessaloniki 1,740
Apollon Kalamarias 1,482
Rating gap +323 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 14.0% 300+ · 22,505 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.