Match ☆ 02 Sep 2009
GRE · Greek Football Cup · 2009
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Athens Kallithea Apollon Kalamarias
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 0 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 9 8
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.00 0.27
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 26.0% 24.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 32.0% 29.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 27.8% 29.8%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 1
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.27

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 2 Sep 2009, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Athens Kallithea 1,526
Apollon Kalamarias 1,482
Rating gap +109 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.3% 100–149 · 86,904 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.