Match ☆ 22 Aug 2009
GRE · Greek Football Cup · 2009
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Fostiras Atsalenios
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 0 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 5 3
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.00 0.07
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 30.0% 7.1%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 25.5% 7.1%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 25.5% 7.1%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 1
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.07

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 22 Aug 2009, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Fostiras 1,478
Atsalenios 1,481
Rating gap +62 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,151 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.