Match 23 May 2010
ITL · Club Friendlies · 2010
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The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure SL Benfica Panathinaikos What it means
N — no-draw run 10 7 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 37 21 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 1.86 1.68 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 18.0% 24.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 19.0% 24.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 20.4% 20.2% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.322 0.308 the predictor ranking score
Rank 336 354 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
SL Benfica 1,938 after: 1,936
Panathinaikos 1,844 after: 1,846
Rating gap +159 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 23.2% 150–199 · 53,166 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.40 – 0.98 home – away
Home win 46.0%
Draw 28.3% every level score added up
Away win 25.7%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 27.2% 80% goals model · 20% Elo gap
Goals model said 28.3% form only
This Elo gap said 23.2% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 530,148 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.