Match ☆ 16 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC
KSA · Saudi Pro League · 2026
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Al Ittihad Al Shabab
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 4 1
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 9 5
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 1.03 0.21
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 24.0% 16.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 27.0% 24.2%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 22.4% 24.2%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 5
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 1.24

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 16 Oct 2026, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Al Ittihad 1,697
Al Shabab 1,541
Rating gap +222 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 20.6% 200–299 · 49,551 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.