Match ☆ 26 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
ENG · League One · 2026
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Bradford City Barnsley
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 6 0
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 21 25
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 1.32 0.00
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 22.0% 32.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 22.0% 27.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 26.3% 26.2%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 6
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 1.32

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 26 Sep 2026, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Bradford City 1,694
Barnsley 1,580
Rating gap +180 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 23.7% 150–199 · 53,226 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.