Match ☆ 20 Mar 1991
ITL · UEFA Champions League · 1990 Quarter-final · Leg 2
Olympique de Marseille advance · agg 4–1
1st leg: AC Milan 1–1 Olympique de Marseille · 06 Mar 1991 · Agg 4–1 Olympique de Marseille advance
View head-to-head record →
The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Olympique de Marseille AC Milan
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 0 0
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 6 10
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.00 0.00
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 15.9% 32.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 15.9% 26.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 15.9% 24.8%
Σ Nboth sides' runs added 0
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added 0.00

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 20 Mar 1991, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo
Olympique de Marseille 1,844
AC Milan 1,975
Rating gap -66 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,157 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles

No prediction stored for this match.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.