Match
ESP · Segunda División · 2026
The models
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
| Figure | Celta Fortuna | CD Tenerife | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw run | 5 | 2 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max N | 5 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debt | 0.83 | 0.54 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50 | 16.7% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100 | 16.7% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all time | 16.7% | 30.0% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw score | 0.456 | 0.170 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rank | 128 | 868 | position in that ranking |
| Σ N | 7 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ E | 1.37 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Score | 0.626 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
Team strength · Elo
Celta Fortuna
1,638
CD Tenerife
1,584
Rating gap
+119
home advantage included
Draws at this gap
24.5%
100–149 · 86,832 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.08
home – away
Home win
42.0%
Draw
28.6%
every level score added up
Away win
29.4%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance
27.7%
80% goals model · 20% Elo gap
Goals model said
28.6%
form only
This Elo gap said
24.5%
strength only
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.